Épila 1–3 Atlético Monzón: Result & Stats

Épila

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Atlético Monzón

4/17/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 31Estadio La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Épila40%

×Draw29%

Atlético Monzón31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÉpilaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Monzón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.99

Épila

1.17

Atlético Monzón

0.99

Épila creates 18% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 115 away

1.20

creates per match

1.22

0.77

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Épila

1.20

Atlético Monzón

1.22

allows per match

Épila

0.77

Atlético Monzón

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Épila+0.00on par

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Épila ↓

Atlético Monzón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Épila or draw

69%

Épila or Atlético Monzón

71%

Draw or Atlético Monzón

60%

Winning margin

Épila wins by 2+

17%

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Épila 1+ goals

69%

Épila 2+ goals

33%

Épila 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals

63%

Atlético Monzón 2+ goals

26%

Atlético Monzón 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Épila (draw refunded)

56%

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Épila at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Épila attack 1.20 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Épila defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Épila scores more

40%

level

29%

Atlético Monzón scores more

31%

Épila at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff