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EO Sidi Bouzid vs Radès — Ligue 2 2020

EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
FT
2 – 0
Radès
Radès
2/14/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade Municipal 17 Décembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

EO Sidi Bouzid50%
×Draw27%
Radès23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EO Sidi Bouzid
1.43
Radès
0.86

EO Sidi Bouzid creates 66% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 47 away

creates per match

EO Sidi Bouzid
1.24
Radès
0.74

allows per match

EO Sidi Bouzid
0.98
Radès
1.62

finishing

EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par
Radès+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EO Sidi Bouzid ↓

Radès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

EO Sidi Bouzid or draw
77%
EO Sidi Bouzid or Radès
73%
Draw or Radès
50%

Winning margin

EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
25%
Radès wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
76%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
42%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
17%
Radès 1+ goals
58%
Radès 2+ goals
21%
Radès 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
69%
Radès (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EO Sidi Bouzid at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 50 matches

Radès away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 1.24 + Radès defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.43

Radès attack 0.74 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
50%
level
27%
Radès scores more
23%

EO Sidi Bouzid at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "EO Sidi Bouzid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EO Sidi Bouzid vs Radès

EO Sidi Bouzid beat Radès 2-0 in Ligue 2 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal 17 Décembre in Sidi Bouzid.