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EO Sidi Bouzid vs Oued Ellil — Ligue 2 2020

EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
3/5/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade Municipal 17 Décembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

EO Sidi Bouzid48%
×Draw29%
Oued Ellil23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EO Sidi Bouzid
1.31
Oued Ellil
0.81

EO Sidi Bouzid creates 62% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 46 away

creates per match

EO Sidi Bouzid
1.24
Oued Ellil
0.65

allows per match

EO Sidi Bouzid
0.98
Oued Ellil
1.37

finishing

EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par
Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EO Sidi Bouzid ↓

Oued Ellil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

EO Sidi Bouzid or draw
77%
EO Sidi Bouzid or Oued Ellil
71%
Draw or Oued Ellil
52%

Winning margin

EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
23%
Oued Ellil wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
73%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
38%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
14%
Oued Ellil 1+ goals
56%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
19%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
68%
Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EO Sidi Bouzid at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 50 matches

Oued Ellil away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 1.24 + Oued Ellil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Oued Ellil attack 0.65 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
48%
level
29%
Oued Ellil scores more
23%

EO Sidi Bouzid at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "EO Sidi Bouzid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EO Sidi Bouzid vs Oued Ellil

EO Sidi Bouzid beat Oued Ellil 1-0 in Ligue 2 on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal 17 Décembre in Sidi Bouzid.