EO Sidi Bouzid 0–1 JS Kairouanaise: Result & Stats

EO Sidi Bouzid

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

JS Kairouanaise

W. Jerbi 56'

11/17/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Municipal 17 Décembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

EO Sidi Bouzid40%

×Draw30%

JS Kairouanaise30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EO Sidi BouzidExpected goals in this matchJS Kairouanaise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.93

EO Sidi Bouzid

1.12

JS Kairouanaise

0.93

EO Sidi Bouzid creates 20% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 45 away

1.24

creates per match

0.87

0.98

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

EO Sidi Bouzid

1.24

JS Kairouanaise

0.87

allows per match

EO Sidi Bouzid

0.98

JS Kairouanaise

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EO Sidi Bouzid ↓

JS Kairouanaise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

EO Sidi Bouzid or draw

70%

EO Sidi Bouzid or JS Kairouanaise

70%

Draw or JS Kairouanaise

60%

Winning margin

EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+

16%

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals

67%

EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals

31%

EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals

10%

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

61%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

24%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)

57%

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EO Sidi Bouzid at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 50 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 1.24 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.87 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

EO Sidi Bouzid scores more

40%

level

30%

JS Kairouanaise scores more

30%

EO Sidi Bouzid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "EO Sidi Bouzid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

W. Jerbi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff