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EO Sidi Bouzid vs Jendouba Sport — Cup 2019

EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
FT
1 – 2
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
10/14/2018CupCup · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

EO Sidi Bouzid34%
×Draw27%
Jendouba Sport39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EO Sidi Bouzid
1.19
Jendouba Sport
1.31

Jendouba Sport creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

EO Sidi Bouzid
1.50
Jendouba Sport
2.13

allows per match

EO Sidi Bouzid
0.50
Jendouba Sport
0.88

finishing

EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EO Sidi Bouzid ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

EO Sidi Bouzid or draw
61%
EO Sidi Bouzid or Jendouba Sport
73%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
66%

Winning margin

EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
14%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
70%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
33%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
12%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
73%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
38%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
46%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EO Sidi Bouzid at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 1.50 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Jendouba Sport attack 2.13 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
34%
level
27%
Jendouba Sport scores more
39%

Jendouba Sport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EO Sidi Bouzid vs Jendouba Sport

Jendouba Sport beat EO Sidi Bouzid 2-1 in Cup on October 14, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Sidi Bouzid.