EO Sidi Bouzid 0–1 EGS Gafsa: Result & Stats

EO Sidi Bouzid

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

EGS Gafsa

12/14/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

EO Sidi Bouzid44%

×Draw29%

EGS Gafsa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EO Sidi BouzidExpected goals in this matchEGS Gafsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.94

EO Sidi Bouzid

1.26

EGS Gafsa

0.94

EO Sidi Bouzid creates 34% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 36 away

1.24

creates per match

0.89

0.98

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

EO Sidi Bouzid

1.24

EGS Gafsa

0.89

allows per match

EO Sidi Bouzid

0.98

EGS Gafsa

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EO Sidi Bouzid ↓

EGS Gafsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

EO Sidi Bouzid or draw

72%

EO Sidi Bouzid or EGS Gafsa

71%

Draw or EGS Gafsa

56%

Winning margin

EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+

20%

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals

72%

EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals

36%

EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals

13%

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

61%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

24%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)

61%

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EO Sidi Bouzid at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 50 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 1.24 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.26

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

EO Sidi Bouzid scores more

44%

level

29%

EGS Gafsa scores more

28%

EO Sidi Bouzid at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "EO Sidi Bouzid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff