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Enyimba vs Warri Wolves — NPFL 2019

Enyimba
Enyimba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
10/19/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 9Enyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Enyimba61%
×Draw24%
Warri Wolves14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enyimba
1.63
Warri Wolves
0.64

Enyimba creates 155% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 51 away

creates per match

Enyimba
1.60
Warri Wolves
0.71

allows per match

Enyimba
0.56
Warri Wolves
1.65

finishing

Enyimba+0.00on par
Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enyimba ↓

Warri Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Enyimba or draw
86%
Enyimba or Warri Wolves
76%
Draw or Warri Wolves
39%

Winning margin

Enyimba wins by 2+
34%
Warri Wolves wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Enyimba 1+ goals
80%
Enyimba 2+ goals
48%
Enyimba 3+ goals
22%
Warri Wolves 1+ goals
47%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
14%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Enyimba (draw refunded)
81%
Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enyimba at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.56 · 130 matches

Warri Wolves away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enyimba attack 1.60 + Warri Wolves defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Warri Wolves attack 0.71 + Enyimba defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Enyimba scores more
61%
level
24%
Warri Wolves scores more
14%

Enyimba at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Enyimba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Enyimba 1–2 Warri Wolves

Warri Wolves beat Enyimba 2-1 in NPFL on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Enyimba International Stadium in Aba.