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Enyimba vs Rahimo — CAF Champions League 2019

Enyimba
Enyimba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rahimo
Rahimo
12/6/2020CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Preliminary RoundEnyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Enyimba81%
×Draw14%
Rahimo4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enyimba
2.30
Rahimo
0.36

Enyimba creates 539% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Enyimba
1.60
Rahimo
0.33

allows per match

Enyimba
0.40
Rahimo
3.00

finishing

Enyimba+0.00on par
Rahimo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enyimba ↓

Rahimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Enyimba or draw
96%
Enyimba or Rahimo
86%
Draw or Rahimo
19%

Winning margin

Enyimba wins by 2+
57%
Rahimo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Enyimba 1+ goals
90%
Enyimba 2+ goals
67%
Enyimba 3+ goals
40%
Rahimo 1+ goals
30%
Rahimo 2+ goals
5%
Rahimo 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Enyimba (draw refunded)
95%
Rahimo (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enyimba at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Rahimo away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enyimba attack 1.60 + Rahimo defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Rahimo attack 0.33 + Enyimba defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Enyimba scores more
81%
level
14%
Rahimo scores more
4%

Enyimba at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Enyimba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enyimba vs Rahimo

Enyimba and Rahimo drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Enyimba International Stadium in Aba.