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Enyimba vs Plateau United — NPFL 2019

Enyimba
Enyimba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Plateau United
Plateau United
5/25/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 38Enyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Enyimba59%
×Draw26%
Plateau United15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enyimba
1.50
Plateau United
0.60

Enyimba creates 150% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 127 away

creates per match

Enyimba
1.60
Plateau United
0.65

allows per match

Enyimba
0.56
Plateau United
1.39

finishing

Enyimba+0.00on par
Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enyimba ↓

Plateau United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Enyimba or draw
85%
Enyimba or Plateau United
74%
Draw or Plateau United
41%

Winning margin

Enyimba wins by 2+
31%
Plateau United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Enyimba 1+ goals
78%
Enyimba 2+ goals
44%
Enyimba 3+ goals
19%
Plateau United 1+ goals
45%
Plateau United 2+ goals
12%
Plateau United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Enyimba (draw refunded)
80%
Plateau United (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enyimba at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.56 · 130 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enyimba attack 1.60 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Enyimba defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Enyimba scores more
59%
level
26%
Plateau United scores more
15%

Enyimba at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Enyimba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enyimba vs Plateau United

Plateau United beat Enyimba 1-0 in NPFL on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Enyimba International Stadium in Aba.