Enyimba 1–1 Heartland: Result & Stats | NPFL

Enyimba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Heartland

1/30/2025

NPFL · Round 21Enyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Enyimba62%

×Draw25%

Heartland13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnyimbaExpected goals in this matchHeartland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.55

Enyimba

1.56

Heartland

0.55

Enyimba creates 184% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 100 away

1.60

creates per match

0.53

0.56

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Enyimba

1.60

Heartland

0.53

allows per match

Enyimba

0.56

Heartland

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enyimba+0.00on par

Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enyimba ↓

Heartland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Enyimba or draw

87%

Enyimba or Heartland

75%

Draw or Heartland

38%

Winning margin

Enyimba wins by 2+

34%

Heartland wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Enyimba 1+ goals

79%

Enyimba 2+ goals

46%

Enyimba 3+ goals

21%

Heartland 1+ goals

42%

Heartland 2+ goals

11%

Heartland 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Enyimba (draw refunded)

83%

Heartland (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enyimba at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.56 · 130 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enyimba attack 1.60 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Heartland attack 0.53 + Enyimba defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Enyimba scores more

62%

level

25%

Heartland scores more

13%

Enyimba at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Enyimba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff