Enyimba 0–0 Al Ahli Benghazi: Result & Stats

Enyimba

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ahli Benghazi

8/27/2023

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundEnyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Enyimba58%

×Draw26%

Al Ahli Benghazi17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnyimbaExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Benghazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.70

Enyimba

1.55

Al Ahli Benghazi

0.70

Enyimba creates 121% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

0.40

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Enyimba

1.60

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.00

allows per match

Enyimba

0.40

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enyimba+0.00on par

Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enyimba ↓

Al Ahli Benghazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Enyimba or draw

83%

Enyimba or Al Ahli Benghazi

74%

Draw or Al Ahli Benghazi

42%

Winning margin

Enyimba wins by 2+

31%

Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Enyimba 1+ goals

79%

Enyimba 2+ goals

46%

Enyimba 3+ goals

20%

Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals

50%

Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals

16%

Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Enyimba (draw refunded)

77%

Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enyimba at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Al Ahli Benghazi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enyimba attack 1.60 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.00 + Enyimba defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Enyimba scores more

58%

level

26%

Al Ahli Benghazi scores more

17%

Enyimba at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Enyimba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff