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Envigado vs Santa Fe — Primera A 2018

Envigado
Envigado
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
7/20/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

Envigado38%
×Draw29%
Santa Fe34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Envigado
1.16
Santa Fe
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 154 home / 184 away

creates per match

Envigado
1.12
Santa Fe
1.08

allows per match

Envigado
1.09
Santa Fe
1.20

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par
Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Envigado or draw
66%
Envigado or Santa Fe
71%
Draw or Santa Fe
62%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+
16%
Santa Fe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals
69%
Envigado 2+ goals
32%
Envigado 3+ goals
11%
Santa Fe 1+ goals
66%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
29%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)
53%
Santa Fe (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 154 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.20 · 184 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.12 + Santa Fe defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Santa Fe attack 1.08 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Envigado scores more
38%
level
29%
Santa Fe scores more
34%

Envigado at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Envigado vs Santa Fe

Santa Fe beat Envigado 1-0 in Primera A on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.