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Envigado vs Jaguares — Copa Colombia 2019

Envigado
Envigado
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jaguares
Jaguares
9/17/2024Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Envigado52%
×Draw27%
Jaguares20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Envigado
1.42
Jaguares
0.77

Envigado creates 84% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

creates per match

Envigado
1.41
Jaguares
0.84

allows per match

Envigado
0.71
Jaguares
1.42

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par
Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Envigado or draw
80%
Envigado or Jaguares
73%
Draw or Jaguares
48%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+
26%
Jaguares wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals
76%
Envigado 2+ goals
41%
Envigado 3+ goals
17%
Jaguares 1+ goals
54%
Jaguares 2+ goals
18%
Jaguares 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)
72%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.41 + Jaguares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Jaguares attack 0.84 + Envigado defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Envigado scores more
52%
level
27%
Jaguares scores more
20%

Envigado at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Envigado 0–0 Jaguares

Envigado and Jaguares drew 0-0 in Copa Colombia on September 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.