Envigado 3–1 Jaguares: Result & Stats | Primera A

Envigado

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Jaguares

J. Zapata 87'

J. Barragán 37', 27'

A. Rentería 60' (pen)

2/26/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 9Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Envigado49%

×Draw27%

Jaguares24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnvigadoExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.88

Envigado

1.40

Jaguares

0.88

Envigado creates 59% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 136 away

1.11

creates per match

0.67

1.09

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Envigado

1.11

Jaguares

0.67

allows per match

Envigado

1.09

Jaguares

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Envigado or draw

76%

Envigado or Jaguares

73%

Draw or Jaguares

51%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+

24%

Jaguares wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals

75%

Envigado 2+ goals

41%

Envigado 3+ goals

17%

Jaguares 1+ goals

59%

Jaguares 2+ goals

22%

Jaguares 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)

67%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.09 · 152 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.68 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.11 + Jaguares defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Jaguares attack 0.67 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Envigado scores more

49%

level

27%

Jaguares scores more

24%

Envigado at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Zapata

Envigado · M

8.3

Match Events

19'

César Carrillo

25'

Jose Barragan

27'

J. Barragán↳ W. Guisao

29'

Jose BarraganGoal confirmed

33'

Francisco Báez

35'

Pablo Rojas

37'

J. Barragán↳ Y. Rodallega

42'

Cristian Moya

46'

D. Padilla← C. Carrillo

54'

B. Sinisterra← W. Guisao

60'

A. RenteríaPenalty

69'

S. Noreña← D. Moreno

69'

D. Córdoba← J. Barragán

73'

A. Arroyo← M. Balanta

73'

79'

83'

85'

87'

J. Zapata↳ B. Sinisterra

88'

Y. Mosquera← J. Zapata

88'

J. Mejía← H. Mosquera

90+3'

Mauricio Castaño

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnvigadoJaguares

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots16

6Corners5

18Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots16

5On Target4

7Off Target7

6Blocked5

6Inside Box10

12Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

351Total Passes292

277Accurate Passes208

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls8

3Yellow Cards5

3Offsides2

Primera A: Envigado 3–1 Jaguares

Envigado beat Jaguares 3-1 in Primera A on February 26, 2022.

Goals: J. Barragán (27', 37'), A. Rentería (60' pen), J. Zapata (87').

Envigado controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.

Envigado vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Envigado 3–1 Jaguares