Envigado 1–1 Huila: Result & Stats | Primera A

Envigado

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Huila

4/14/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 15Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Envigado46%

×Draw29%

Huila24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnvigadoExpected goals in this matchHuila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.81

Envigado

1.24

Huila

0.81

Envigado creates 53% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 70 away

1.12

creates per match

0.53

1.09

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Envigado

1.12

Huila

0.53

allows per match

Envigado

1.09

Huila

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par

Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Huila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Envigado or draw

76%

Envigado or Huila

71%

Draw or Huila

54%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+

21%

Huila wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals

71%

Envigado 2+ goals

35%

Envigado 3+ goals

13%

Huila 1+ goals

56%

Huila 2+ goals

19%

Huila 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)

66%

Huila (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 154 matches

Huila away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.12 + Huila defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Huila attack 0.53 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Envigado scores more

46%

level

29%

Huila scores more

24%

Envigado at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff