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Envigado vs Cortulua — Primera A 2018

Envigado
Envigado
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cortulua
Cortulua
11/20/2016Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 20Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Envigado47%
×Draw27%
Cortulua26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Envigado
1.38
Cortulua
0.94

Envigado creates 47% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 36 away

creates per match

Envigado
1.12
Cortulua
0.78

allows per match

Envigado
1.09
Cortulua
1.64

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par
Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Cortulua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Envigado or draw
74%
Envigado or Cortulua
73%
Draw or Cortulua
53%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+
23%
Cortulua wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals
75%
Envigado 2+ goals
40%
Envigado 3+ goals
16%
Cortulua 1+ goals
61%
Cortulua 2+ goals
24%
Cortulua 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)
65%
Cortulua (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 154 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.12 + Cortulua defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cortulua attack 0.78 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Envigado scores more
47%
level
27%
Cortulua scores more
26%

Envigado at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Envigado vs Cortulua

Envigado beat Cortulua 1-0 in Primera A on November 20, 2016.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.