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Envigado vs Chico — Primera A 2018

Envigado
Envigado
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chico
Chico
2/1/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 3Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Envigado55%
×Draw25%
Chico20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Envigado
1.56
Chico
0.83

Envigado creates 88% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 112 away

creates per match

Envigado
1.12
Chico
0.57

allows per match

Envigado
1.09
Chico
1.99

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par
Chico+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Chico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Envigado or draw
80%
Envigado or Chico
75%
Draw or Chico
45%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+
29%
Chico wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals
79%
Envigado 2+ goals
46%
Envigado 3+ goals
21%
Chico 1+ goals
56%
Chico 2+ goals
20%
Chico 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)
73%
Chico (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 154 matches

Chico away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.99 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.12 + Chico defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chico attack 0.57 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Envigado scores more
55%
level
25%
Chico scores more
20%

Envigado at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Envigado vs Chico

Envigado beat Chico 2-0 in Primera A on February 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.