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Envigado vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Envigado
Envigado
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
America de Cali
America de Cali
2/18/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

Envigado39%
×Draw29%
America de Cali32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Envigado
1.19
America de Cali
1.06

Envigado creates 12% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 191 away

creates per match

Envigado
1.12
America de Cali
1.04

allows per match

Envigado
1.09
America de Cali
1.26

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Envigado or draw
68%
Envigado or America de Cali
71%
Draw or America de Cali
61%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+
17%
America de Cali wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals
70%
Envigado 2+ goals
33%
Envigado 3+ goals
12%
America de Cali 1+ goals
65%
America de Cali 2+ goals
29%
America de Cali 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)
55%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 154 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 191 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.12 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Envigado scores more
39%
level
29%
America de Cali scores more
32%

Envigado at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Envigado 1–1 America de Cali

Envigado and America de Cali drew 1-1 in Primera A on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.