Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Envigado vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Envigado
Envigado
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
10/24/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 8Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

Envigado40%
×Draw29%
Águilas Doradas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Envigado
1.21
Águilas Doradas
1.03

Envigado creates 17% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 170 away

creates per match

Envigado
1.12
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Envigado
1.09
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Envigado or draw
69%
Envigado or Águilas Doradas
71%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
60%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+
17%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals
70%
Envigado 2+ goals
34%
Envigado 3+ goals
12%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
64%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
28%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)
56%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 154 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.12 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Envigado scores more
40%
level
29%
Águilas Doradas scores more
31%

Envigado at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Envigado 3–0 Águilas Doradas

Envigado beat Águilas Doradas 3-0 in Primera A on October 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.