Águilas Doradas 1–0 Envigado: Result & Stats

Águilas Doradas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Envigado

W. Morelo 57'

3/24/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 10Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 151+ matches

Águilas Doradas47%

×Draw28%

Envigado25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.90

Águilas Doradas

1.34

Envigado

0.90

Águilas Doradas creates 49% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 151 away

1.29

creates per match

0.75

1.05

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.29

Envigado

0.75

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.05

Envigado

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

75%

Águilas Doradas or Envigado

72%

Draw or Envigado

53%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

22%

Envigado wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

74%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

39%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

15%

Envigado 1+ goals

59%

Envigado 2+ goals

23%

Envigado 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

65%

Envigado (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 170 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.40 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.29 + Envigado defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Envigado attack 0.75 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

47%

level

28%

Envigado scores more

25%

Águilas Doradas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Yony Gonzalez

Águilas Doradas · M

8.2

Match Events

1'

J. J. Gamboa Valencia

14'

N. Uribe

24'

H. Mancilla

36'

J. Pineda← D. Lozano

57'

W. Morelo↳ Yony Gonzalez

62'

66'

66'

73'

79'

J. Escobar Salcedo← J. Caballero

79'

A. Vasquez← W. Morelo

83'

L. Diaz

87'

J. Hinestroza← N. Uribe

87'

M. Marulanda← J. Garces

88'

N. Lara Vasquez← Yony Gonzalez

90+4'

D. Palacios

90+2'

D. Palacios← J. Palacio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ÁguilasEnvigado

Overview

44%Possession56%

10Total Shots10

4Corners3

11Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots10

6On Target2

4Off Target2

0Blocked6

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

288Total Passes377

225Accurate Passes320

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls17

1Yellow Cards6

0Offsides2

Primera A: Águilas Doradas 1–0 Envigado

Águilas Doradas beat Envigado 1-0 in Primera A on March 24, 2025.

Goals: W. Morelo (57').

Envigado controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro.

Águilas Doradas vs Envigado — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Águilas Doradas 1–0 Envigado