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Enugu Rangers vs Warri Wolves — NPFL 2019

Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
2/7/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 9Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Enugu Rangers62%
×Draw24%
Warri Wolves14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enugu Rangers
1.63
Warri Wolves
0.61

Enugu Rangers creates 167% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 51 away

creates per match

Enugu Rangers
1.61
Warri Wolves
0.71

allows per match

Enugu Rangers
0.52
Warri Wolves
1.65

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par
Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Warri Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw
86%
Enugu Rangers or Warri Wolves
76%
Draw or Warri Wolves
38%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
35%
Warri Wolves wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
80%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
48%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
22%
Warri Wolves 1+ goals
46%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
13%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
82%
Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Warri Wolves away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Warri Wolves defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Warri Wolves attack 0.71 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more
62%
level
24%
Warri Wolves scores more
14%

Enugu Rangers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enugu Rangers vs Warri Wolves

Enugu Rangers beat Warri Wolves 1-0 in NPFL on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium in Enugu.