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Enugu Rangers vs Sporting Lagos — NPFL 2019

Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
12/17/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 14Awka City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Enugu Rangers66%
×Draw24%
Sporting Lagos10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enugu Rangers
1.62
Sporting Lagos
0.47

Enugu Rangers creates 245% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 19 away

creates per match

Enugu Rangers
1.61
Sporting Lagos
0.42

allows per match

Enugu Rangers
0.52
Sporting Lagos
1.63

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par
Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Sporting Lagos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw
90%
Enugu Rangers or Sporting Lagos
76%
Draw or Sporting Lagos
34%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
37%
Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
80%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
48%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
22%
Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
37%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
8%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
86%
Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Sporting Lagos away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Sporting Lagos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.62

Sporting Lagos attack 0.42 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more
66%
level
24%
Sporting Lagos scores more
10%

Enugu Rangers at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Enugu Rangers 2–0 Sporting Lagos

Enugu Rangers beat Sporting Lagos 2-0 in NPFL on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Awka City Stadium in Awka.