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Enugu Rangers vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gombe United
Gombe United
C. Nwobodo 49'
3/5/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 17Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Enugu Rangers70%
×Draw22%
Gombe United9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enugu Rangers
1.75
Gombe United
0.44

Enugu Rangers creates 298% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 59 away

creates per match

Enugu Rangers
1.61
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Enugu Rangers
0.52
Gombe United
1.90

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw
91%
Enugu Rangers or Gombe United
78%
Draw or Gombe United
30%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
41%
Gombe United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
83%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
52%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
25%
Gombe United 1+ goals
36%
Gombe United 2+ goals
7%
Gombe United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
89%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.90 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Gombe United defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more
70%
level
22%
Gombe United scores more
9%

Enugu Rangers at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
C. Nwobodo
56'
M. Najare

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Enugu Rangers 1 – 0 Gombe United

Enugu Rangers beat Gombe United 1-0 in NPFL on March 5, 2022.

Goals: C. Nwobodo (49').

The match was played at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium in Enugu.