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Enugu Rangers vs El Kanemi Warriors — NPFL 2019

Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
El Kanemi Warriors
El Kanemi Warriors
3/22/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 31Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Enugu Rangers68%
×Draw22%
El Kanemi Warriors10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enugu Rangers
1.72
El Kanemi Warriors
0.48

Enugu Rangers creates 258% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 59 away

creates per match

Enugu Rangers
1.61
El Kanemi Warriors
0.44

allows per match

Enugu Rangers
0.52
El Kanemi Warriors
1.83

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par
El Kanemi Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

El Kanemi Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw
90%
Enugu Rangers or El Kanemi Warriors
78%
Draw or El Kanemi Warriors
32%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
40%
El Kanemi Warriors wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
82%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
51%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
25%
El Kanemi Warriors 1+ goals
38%
El Kanemi Warriors 2+ goals
8%
El Kanemi Warriors 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
87%
El Kanemi Warriors (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

El Kanemi Warriors away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.83 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + El Kanemi Warriors defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

El Kanemi Warriors attack 0.44 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more
68%
level
22%
El Kanemi Warriors scores more
10%

Enugu Rangers at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Enugu Rangers 2–0 El Kanemi Warriors

Enugu Rangers beat El Kanemi Warriors 2-0 in NPFL on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium in Enugu.