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Enugu Rangers vs Akwa Starlets — NPFL 2019

Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
FT
0 – 2
Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
I. George 44'
F. Ajayi 18'
11/24/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 5Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Enugu Rangers64%
×Draw24%
Akwa Starlets12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enugu Rangers
1.60
Akwa Starlets
0.52

Enugu Rangers creates 208% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 60 away

creates per match

Enugu Rangers
1.61
Akwa Starlets
0.52

allows per match

Enugu Rangers
0.52
Akwa Starlets
1.60

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par
Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Akwa Starlets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw
88%
Enugu Rangers or Akwa Starlets
76%
Draw or Akwa Starlets
36%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
36%
Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
80%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
47%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
22%
Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
41%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
10%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
84%
Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Akwa Starlets away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Akwa Starlets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Akwa Starlets attack 0.52 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more
64%
level
24%
Akwa Starlets scores more
12%

Enugu Rangers at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
F. Ajayi
44'
I. George
48'
66'
K. Itoya← K. Itoya
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enugu Rangers vs Akwa Starlets

Akwa Starlets beat Enugu Rangers 2-0 in NPFL on November 24, 2019.

Goals: F. Ajayi (18'), I. George (44').

The match was played at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium in Enugu.