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Akwa Starlets vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
6/20/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 28Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets48%
×Draw29%
Enugu Rangers23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.30
Enugu Rangers
0.81

Akwa Starlets creates 60% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 130 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
77%
Akwa Starlets or Enugu Rangers
71%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
52%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
22%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
73%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
37%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
14%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
56%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
19%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
67%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
48%
level
29%
Enugu Rangers scores more
23%

Akwa Starlets at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akwa Starlets vs Enugu Rangers

Akwa Starlets and Enugu Rangers drew 1-1 in NPFL on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo.