Entente S St Gratien 4–0 Mtsapere: Result & Stats

Entente S St Gratien

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mtsapere

J. N'Sondé 90'

E. Sidibé 68' (pen)

M. Talal 32'

M. Doremus 29'

11/17/2018

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade Michel Hidalgo (Saint-Gratien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Entente S St Gratien65%

×Draw24%

Mtsapere10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Entente S St GratienExpected goals in this matchMtsapere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.46

Entente S St Gratien

1.58

Mtsapere

0.46

Entente S St Gratien creates 243% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

0.60

0.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Entente S St Gratien

1.17

Mtsapere

0.60

allows per match

Entente S St Gratien

0.33

Mtsapere

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Entente S St Gratien+0.00on par

Mtsapere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Entente S St Gratien ↓

Mtsapere →

0–013%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–021%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Entente S St Gratien or draw

90%

Entente S St Gratien or Mtsapere

76%

Draw or Mtsapere

35%

Winning margin

Entente S St Gratien wins by 2+

36%

Mtsapere wins by 2+

Team goals

Entente S St Gratien 1+ goals

79%

Entente S St Gratien 2+ goals

47%

Entente S St Gratien 3+ goals

21%

Mtsapere 1+ goals

37%

Mtsapere 2+ goals

Mtsapere 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Entente S St Gratien (draw refunded)

86%

Mtsapere (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Entente S St Gratien at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Mtsapere away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Entente S St Gratien attack 1.17 + Mtsapere defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mtsapere attack 0.60 + Entente S St Gratien defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Entente S St Gratien scores more

65%

level

24%

Mtsapere scores more

10%

Entente S St Gratien at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Entente S St Gratien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

M. Doremus

32'

M. Talal

54'

N. Mari← A. El Delal Eddine

60'

J. N'Sondé← S. Dia

68'

E. SidibéPenalty

69'

M. Géran← M. Talal

69'

A. Hassani← A. Ousseni

72'

V. Pirès← R. Souici

76'

B. M'sa← C. Athoumani

90'

J. N'Sondé

Entente

Mtsapere

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: V. Bordot

60'▲J. N'Sondé←▼S. Dia

69'▲M. Géran←▼M. Talal

72'▲V. Pirès←▼R. Souici

Entente S St Gratien substitutes

N'SondéGéranPirèsDraméSalamone

Manager: A. Massoundi

54'▲N. Mari←▼A. El Delal Eddine

69'▲A. Hassani←▼A. Ousseni

76'▲B. M'sa←▼C. Athoumani

Mtsapere substitutes

MariHassaniM'saSidiRachidi

Coupe de France: Entente S St Gratien 4–0 Mtsapere

Entente S St Gratien beat Mtsapere 4-0 in Coupe de France on November 17, 2018.

Goals: M. Doremus (29'), M. Talal (32'), E. Sidibé (68' pen), J. N'Sondé (90').

The match was played at Stade Michel Hidalgo (Saint-Gratien).

Entente S St Gratien vs Mtsapere — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Coupe de France: Entente S St Gratien 4–0 Mtsapere