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Entente S St Gratien vs Montpellier — Coupe de France 2018

Entente S St Gratien
Entente S St Gratien
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montpellier
Montpellier
1/5/2019Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 32nd FinalsStade Michel Hidalgo (Saint-Gratien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Entente S St Gratien34%
×Draw32%
Montpellier34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Entente S St Gratien
0.96
Montpellier
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Entente S St Gratien
1.17
Montpellier
1.59

allows per match

Entente S St Gratien
0.33
Montpellier
0.76

finishing

Entente S St Gratien+0.00on par
Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Entente S St Gratien ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Entente S St Gratien or draw
66%
Entente S St Gratien or Montpellier
68%
Draw or Montpellier
66%

Winning margin

Entente S St Gratien wins by 2+
13%
Montpellier wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Entente S St Gratien 1+ goals
62%
Entente S St Gratien 2+ goals
25%
Entente S St Gratien 3+ goals
7%
Montpellier 1+ goals
62%
Montpellier 2+ goals
25%
Montpellier 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Entente S St Gratien (draw refunded)
50%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Entente S St Gratien at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Entente S St Gratien attack 1.17 + Montpellier defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Montpellier attack 1.59 + Entente S St Gratien defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Entente S St Gratien scores more
34%
level
32%
Montpellier scores more
34%

Entente S St Gratien at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Entente S St Gratien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Entente S St Gratien vs Montpellier

Entente S St Gratien beat Montpellier 1-0 in Coupe de France on January 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Michel Hidalgo (Saint-Gratien).