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Entente S St Gratien vs Bordeaux — Coupe de France 2018

Entente S St Gratien
Entente S St Gratien
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bordeaux
Bordeauxadvanced
M. Camara 120+8' (pen)
Z. Gouriche 120+6' (pen)
S. Baradji 18'
A. Pitu 120+9' (pen)
D. Ihnatenko 120+5' (pen), 66'
J. Livolant 120+3' (pen)
Y. Barbet 120+1' (pen)
1/6/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Michel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Entente S St Gratien39%
×Draw30%
Bordeaux32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Entente S St Gratien
1.14
Bordeaux
1.00

Entente S St Gratien creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Entente S St Gratien
1.17
Bordeaux
1.67

allows per match

Entente S St Gratien
0.33
Bordeaux
1.11

finishing

Entente S St Gratien+0.00on par
Bordeaux+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Entente S St Gratien ↓

Bordeaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Entente S St Gratien or draw
68%
Entente S St Gratien or Bordeaux
70%
Draw or Bordeaux
61%

Winning margin

Entente S St Gratien wins by 2+
16%
Bordeaux wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Entente S St Gratien 1+ goals
68%
Entente S St Gratien 2+ goals
32%
Entente S St Gratien 3+ goals
11%
Bordeaux 1+ goals
63%
Bordeaux 2+ goals
26%
Bordeaux 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Entente S St Gratien (draw refunded)
55%
Bordeaux (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Entente S St Gratien at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Bordeaux away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Entente S St Gratien attack 1.17 + Bordeaux defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bordeaux attack 1.67 + Entente S St Gratien defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Entente S St Gratien scores more
39%
level
30%
Bordeaux scores more
32%

Entente S St Gratien at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Entente S St Gratien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Pedro DíazBordeauxBordeaux · M
7.9

Match Events

6'
H. Dieye El
18'
S. Baradji
22'
Y. Somme
33'
E. Biumla
45+1'
D. Ignatenko
54'
A. Sy
63'
Z. Vipotnik← A. Badji
63'
M. De Lima← V. NSimba
63'
Y. Barbet← E. Biumla
66'
D. Ihnatenko↳ G. Weissbeck
69'
M. Camara← M. Soumaré
70'
Z. Gouriche← S. Baradji
74'
W. Baku← Luis Castro
79'
J. Vetro← G. Weissbeck
80'
Z. El Khemiri← Y. Somme
89'
J. Marcelin
89'
M. Camara
120+1'
Y. BarbetPenalty
120+2'
A. KissyMissed penalty
120+3'
J. LivolantPenalty
120+4'
Z. El KhemiriMissed penalty
120+5'
D. IhnatenkoPenalty
120+6'
Z. GourichePenalty
120+7'
Z. VipotnikMissed penalty
120+8'
M. CamaraPenalty
120+9'
A. PituPenalty

Possession

22%Entente

Shots

7Entente

Pass accuracy

40%Entente

Statistics

EntenteBordeaux
Overview
22%Possession78%
7Total Shots12
3Corners11
19Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots12
4On Target2
1Off Target6
2Blocked4
3Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
22%Possession78%
166Total Passes591
95Accurate Passes508
57%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls13
4Yellow Cards3

Coupe de France: Entente S St Gratien 1–1 Bordeaux

Entente S St Gratien and Bordeaux drew 1-1 in Coupe de France on January 6, 2024.

Goals: S. Baradji (18'), D. Ihnatenko (66', 120+5' pen), Y. Barbet (120+1' pen), J. Livolant (120+3' pen), Z. Gouriche (120+6' pen), M. Camara (120+8' pen), A. Pitu (120+9' pen).

Bordeaux controlled possession (78%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Michel Hidalgo in Saint-Gratien.