Entebbe UPPC 0–2 SC Villa: Result & Stats

Entebbe UPPC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

SC Villa

3/14/2026

Premier League · Round 21Gaddafi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Entebbe UPPC39%

×Draw33%

SC Villa27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Entebbe UPPCExpected goals in this matchSC Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.76

Entebbe UPPC

0.98

SC Villa

0.76

Entebbe UPPC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 99 away

1.00

creates per match

0.99

0.53

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Entebbe UPPC

1.00

SC Villa

0.99

allows per match

Entebbe UPPC

0.53

SC Villa

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Entebbe UPPC+0.00on par

SC Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Entebbe UPPC ↓

SC Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Entebbe UPPC or draw

73%

Entebbe UPPC or SC Villa

67%

Draw or SC Villa

61%

Winning margin

Entebbe UPPC wins by 2+

15%

SC Villa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Entebbe UPPC 1+ goals

62%

Entebbe UPPC 2+ goals

26%

Entebbe UPPC 3+ goals

8%

SC Villa 1+ goals

53%

SC Villa 2+ goals

18%

SC Villa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Entebbe UPPC (draw refunded)

59%

SC Villa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Entebbe UPPC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

SC Villa away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Entebbe UPPC attack 1.00 + SC Villa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

SC Villa attack 0.99 + Entebbe UPPC defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Entebbe UPPC scores more

39%

level

33%

SC Villa scores more

27%

Entebbe UPPC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Entebbe UPPC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff