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Entebbe UPPC vs Lugazi — Premier League 2019

Entebbe UPPC
Entebbe UPPC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lugazi
Lugazi
10/1/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Bugonga Football Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Entebbe UPPC53%
×Draw33%
Lugazi14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Entebbe UPPC
1.11
Lugazi
0.43

Entebbe UPPC creates 158% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Entebbe UPPC
1.00
Lugazi
0.33

allows per match

Entebbe UPPC
0.53
Lugazi
1.23

finishing

Entebbe UPPC+0.00on par
Lugazi+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Entebbe UPPC ↓

Lugazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Entebbe UPPC or draw
86%
Entebbe UPPC or Lugazi
67%
Draw or Lugazi
47%

Winning margin

Entebbe UPPC wins by 2+
23%
Lugazi wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Entebbe UPPC 1+ goals
67%
Entebbe UPPC 2+ goals
30%
Entebbe UPPC 3+ goals
10%
Lugazi 1+ goals
35%
Lugazi 2+ goals
7%
Lugazi 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Entebbe UPPC (draw refunded)
79%
Lugazi (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Entebbe UPPC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Lugazi away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Entebbe UPPC attack 1.00 + Lugazi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Lugazi attack 0.33 + Entebbe UPPC defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Entebbe UPPC scores more
53%
level
33%
Lugazi scores more
14%

Entebbe UPPC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Entebbe UPPC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Entebbe UPPC 2–1 Lugazi

Entebbe UPPC beat Lugazi 2-1 in Premier League on October 1, 2025.

The match was played at Bugonga Football Pitch.