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Enskede vs Täby — Svenska Cupen 2019

Enskede
Enskede
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Täby
Täby
8/19/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundEnskede IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Enskede10%
×Draw14%
Täby76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enskede
1.00
Täby
2.96

Täby creates 196% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Enskede
1.00
Täby
2.25

allows per match

Enskede
3.67
Täby
1.00

finishing

Enskede+0.00on par
Täby+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enskede ↓

Täby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–39%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Enskede or draw
24%
Enskede or Täby
86%
Draw or Täby
90%

Winning margin

Enskede wins by 2+
3%
Täby wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Enskede 1+ goals
63%
Enskede 2+ goals
26%
Enskede 3+ goals
8%
Täby 1+ goals
95%
Täby 2+ goals
79%
Täby 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Enskede (draw refunded)
12%
Täby (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enskede at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Täby away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enskede attack 1.00 + Täby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Täby attack 2.25 + Enskede defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Enskede scores more
10%
level
14%
Täby scores more
76%

Täby at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Täby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Enskede 2–4 Täby

Täby beat Enskede 4-2 in Svenska Cupen on August 19, 2020.

The match was played at Enskede IP 1 in Stockholm.