Enskede 2–3 Stockholm Internazionale

Enskede

FT

2 – 3

Stockholm Internazionale

7/7/2021

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 29Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Enskede34%

×Draw21%

Stockholm Internazionale44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnskedeExpected goals in this matchStockholm Internazionale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.05

Enskede

1.79

Stockholm Internazionale

2.05

Stockholm Internazionale creates 15% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

2.48

creates per match

3.00

1.10

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Enskede

2.48

Stockholm Internazionale

3.00

allows per match

Enskede

1.10

Stockholm Internazionale

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enskede+0.00on par

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enskede ↓

Stockholm Internazionale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Enskede or draw

56%

Enskede or Stockholm Internazionale

79%

Draw or Stockholm Internazionale

66%

Winning margin

Enskede wins by 2+

17%

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Enskede 1+ goals

83%

Enskede 2+ goals

53%

Enskede 3+ goals

26%

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals

87%

Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals

61%

Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Enskede (draw refunded)

44%

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enskede at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Stockholm Internazionale away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enskede attack 2.48 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.79

Stockholm Internazionale attack 3.00 + Enskede defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Enskede scores more

34%

level

21%

Stockholm Internazionale scores more

44%

Stockholm Internazionale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff