Enskede 5–2 Fanna BK: Result & Stats

Enskede

FT

5 – 2

Fanna BK

9/26/2020

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 10Enskede IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Enskede67%

×Draw17%

Fanna BK16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnskedeExpected goals in this matchFanna BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.20

Enskede

2.59

Fanna BK

1.20

Enskede creates 116% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 7 away

2.48

creates per match

1.29

1.10

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Enskede

2.48

Fanna BK

1.29

allows per match

Enskede

1.10

Fanna BK

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enskede+0.00on par

Fanna BK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enskede ↓

Fanna BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Enskede or draw

84%

Enskede or Fanna BK

83%

Draw or Fanna BK

33%

Winning margin

Enskede wins by 2+

45%

Fanna BK wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Enskede 1+ goals

92%

Enskede 2+ goals

73%

Enskede 3+ goals

47%

Fanna BK 1+ goals

70%

Fanna BK 2+ goals

34%

Fanna BK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Enskede (draw refunded)

81%

Fanna BK (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enskede at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Fanna BK away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enskede attack 2.48 + Fanna BK defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.59

Fanna BK attack 1.29 + Enskede defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Enskede scores more

67%

level

17%

Fanna BK scores more

16%

Enskede at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Enskede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff