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Enppi vs El Mokawloon — Premier League 2018

Enppi
Enppi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
El Mokawloon
El Mokawloon
4/9/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Enppi38%
×Draw29%
El Mokawloon33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enppi
1.13
El Mokawloon
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 99 away

creates per match

Enppi
1.02
El Mokawloon
1.08

allows per match

Enppi
0.99
El Mokawloon
1.23

finishing

Enppi+0.00on par
El Mokawloon+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enppi ↓

El Mokawloon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Enppi or draw
67%
Enppi or El Mokawloon
71%
Draw or El Mokawloon
62%

Winning margin

Enppi wins by 2+
15%
El Mokawloon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Enppi 1+ goals
68%
Enppi 2+ goals
31%
Enppi 3+ goals
11%
El Mokawloon 1+ goals
65%
El Mokawloon 2+ goals
28%
El Mokawloon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Enppi (draw refunded)
53%
El Mokawloon (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enppi at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.99 · 125 matches

El Mokawloon away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enppi attack 1.02 + El Mokawloon defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

El Mokawloon attack 1.08 + Enppi defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Enppi scores more
38%
level
29%
El Mokawloon scores more
33%

Enppi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Enppi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Enppi 2–1 El Mokawloon

Enppi beat El Mokawloon 2-1 in Premier League on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium in Cairo.