Enosis 0–1 Akritas: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Enosis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Akritas

G. Chatzivasilis 45' (pen)

12/20/2025

1. Division · Round 15Paralimni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Enosis38%

×Draw27%

Akritas35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnosisExpected goals in this matchAkritas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.25

Enosis

1.30

Akritas

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

0.92

creates per match

1.10

1.41

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Enosis

0.92

Akritas

1.10

allows per match

Enosis

1.41

Akritas

1.68

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Enosis+0.22scores more

Akritas+0.07on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enosis ↓

Akritas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Enosis or draw

65%

Enosis or Akritas

73%

Draw or Akritas

62%

Winning margin

Enosis wins by 2+

17%

Akritas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Enosis 1+ goals

73%

Enosis 2+ goals

37%

Enosis 3+ goals

14%

Akritas 1+ goals

71%

Akritas 2+ goals

36%

Akritas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Enosis (draw refunded)

52%

Akritas (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enosis at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.41 · 7 matches

Akritas away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.68 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enosis attack 0.92 + Akritas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.30

Akritas attack 1.10 + Enosis defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Enosis scores more

38%

level

27%

Akritas scores more

35%

Enosis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Enosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

M. Krainz

Enosis · M

7.9

Match Events

33'

34'

38'

38'

45+2'

Ioannis Chatzivasilis

45'

G. ChatzivasilisPenalty

46'

Z. Museliani← M. Charalampous

48'

Panagiotis Panagiotou

58'

D. Solomou← A. Ella

69'

C. Kyzas← G. Kurez

75'

B. Anang← G. Chatzivasilis

82'

J. Kazan← A. Katsiaris

83'

L. Genethliou← S. Miller

83'

K. Antoniou← Y. Castro

83'

A. Athanasiou← T. Barry

90+6'

Lampros Genethliou

90+2'

N. Zinonos← A. Fernandez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnosisAkritas

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots4

0.68Expected Goals (xG)0.81

6Corners2

17Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots4

5On Target2

4Off Target1

5Blocked1

4Inside Box1

10Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

379Total Passes294

312Accurate Passes221

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1