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Ennepetal vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Ennepetal
Ennepetal
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
2/27/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 16Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ennepetal45%
×Draw22%
TuS Haltern33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ennepetal
1.96
TuS Haltern
1.64

Ennepetal creates 20% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ennepetal
1.57
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

Ennepetal
1.88
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

Ennepetal+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ennepetal ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ennepetal or draw
67%
Ennepetal or TuS Haltern
78%
Draw or TuS Haltern
55%

Winning margin

Ennepetal wins by 2+
25%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ennepetal 1+ goals
86%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
58%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
31%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
81%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
49%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ennepetal (draw refunded)
58%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ennepetal at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ennepetal attack 1.57 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.96

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Ennepetal defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ennepetal scores more
45%
level
22%
TuS Haltern scores more
33%

Ennepetal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ennepetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ennepetal vs TuS Haltern

TuS Haltern beat Ennepetal 5-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz in Ennepetal.