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Ennepetal vs TuS Erndtebruck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Ennepetal
Ennepetal
CANC
13:00
TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
10/18/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 9Bremenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ennepetal50%
×Draw21%
TuS Erndtebruck29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ennepetal
2.14
TuS Erndtebruck
1.58

Ennepetal creates 35% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ennepetal
1.57
TuS Erndtebruck
1.29

allows per match

Ennepetal
1.88
TuS Erndtebruck
2.71

finishing

Ennepetal+0.00on par
TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ennepetal ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ennepetal or draw
71%
Ennepetal or TuS Erndtebruck
79%
Draw or TuS Erndtebruck
50%

Winning margin

Ennepetal wins by 2+
30%
TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ennepetal 1+ goals
88%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
63%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
36%
TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
79%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
47%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ennepetal (draw refunded)
64%
TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ennepetal at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ennepetal attack 1.57 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.14

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + Ennepetal defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ennepetal scores more
50%
level
21%
TuS Erndtebruck scores more
29%

Ennepetal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ennepetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ennepetal vs TuS Erndtebruck — Match Preview

Ennepetal face TuS Erndtebruck on October 18, 2020 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ennepetal host TuS Erndtebruck at Bremenstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.