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Ennepetal vs Sportfreunde Lotte — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Ennepetal
Ennepetal
FT
0 – 0
Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
2/12/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 19Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ennepetal29%
×Draw22%
Sportfreunde Lotte49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ennepetal
1.45
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.94

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 34% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ennepetal
1.57
Sportfreunde Lotte
2.00

allows per match

Ennepetal
1.88
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.32

finishing

Ennepetal+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ennepetal ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ennepetal or draw
51%
Ennepetal or Sportfreunde Lotte
78%
Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte
71%

Winning margin

Ennepetal wins by 2+
13%
Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Ennepetal 1+ goals
77%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
42%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
18%
Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
86%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
58%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Ennepetal (draw refunded)
37%
Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ennepetal at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ennepetal attack 1.57 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.00 + Ennepetal defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ennepetal scores more
29%
level
22%
Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
49%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ennepetal vs Sportfreunde Lotte

Ennepetal and Sportfreunde Lotte drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz in Ennepetal.