Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ennepetal vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Ennepetal
Ennepetal
FT
2 – 2
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
11/14/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 12Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ennepetal51%
×Draw22%
Hammer SpVg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ennepetal
2.02
Hammer SpVg
1.42

Ennepetal creates 42% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ennepetal
1.57
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

Ennepetal
1.88
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

Ennepetal+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ennepetal ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ennepetal or draw
73%
Ennepetal or Hammer SpVg
78%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
49%

Winning margin

Ennepetal wins by 2+
30%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ennepetal 1+ goals
87%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
60%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
33%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
76%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
41%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ennepetal (draw refunded)
65%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ennepetal at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ennepetal attack 1.57 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Ennepetal defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ennepetal scores more
51%
level
22%
Hammer SpVg scores more
27%

Ennepetal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ennepetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Ennepetal 2–2 Hammer SpVg

Ennepetal and Hammer SpVg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz in Ennepetal.