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Ennepetal vs Eintracht Rheine — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Ennepetal
Ennepetal
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
10/6/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 9Bremenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Ennepetal43%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Rheine35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ennepetal
1.90
Eintracht Rheine
1.71

Ennepetal creates 11% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 89 away

creates per match

Ennepetal
1.57
Eintracht Rheine
1.54

allows per match

Ennepetal
1.88
Eintracht Rheine
2.22

finishing

Ennepetal+0.00on par
Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ennepetal ↓

Eintracht Rheine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ennepetal or draw
65%
Ennepetal or Eintracht Rheine
78%
Draw or Eintracht Rheine
57%

Winning margin

Ennepetal wins by 2+
23%
Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ennepetal 1+ goals
85%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
56%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
29%
Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
82%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
51%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ennepetal (draw refunded)
55%
Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ennepetal at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

Eintracht Rheine away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ennepetal attack 1.57 + Eintracht Rheine defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.90

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.54 + Ennepetal defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ennepetal scores more
43%
level
22%
Eintracht Rheine scores more
35%

Ennepetal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ennepetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ennepetal vs Eintracht Rheine

Eintracht Rheine beat Ennepetal 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Bremenstadion in Ennepetal.