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Ennepetal vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Ennepetal
Ennepetal
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
O. Keskin 90+1'
S. Antwi-Adjej 73'
D. Vaitkevicius 66'
M. Muller 17'
A. Uzunbas 58'
B. Yerli 41'
4/21/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 32Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ennepetal57%
×Draw19%
Concordia Wiemelhausen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ennepetal
2.50
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.58

Ennepetal creates 58% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ennepetal
1.57
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

Ennepetal
1.88
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

Ennepetal+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ennepetal ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Ennepetal or draw
76%
Ennepetal or Concordia Wiemelhausen
81%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
43%

Winning margin

Ennepetal wins by 2+
37%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ennepetal 1+ goals
92%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
71%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
45%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
79%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
47%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ennepetal (draw refunded)
71%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ennepetal at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ennepetal attack 1.57 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.50

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Ennepetal defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ennepetal scores more
57%
level
19%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
24%

Ennepetal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ennepetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
M. Muller
41'
B. Yerli
58'
A. Uzunbas
66'
D. Vaitkevicius
73'
S. Antwi-Adjej
90+1'
O. Keskin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Ennepetal 4–2 Concordia Wiemelhausen

Ennepetal beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 4-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Muller (17'), B. Yerli (41'), A. Uzunbas (58'), D. Vaitkevicius (66'), S. Antwi-Adjej (73'), O. Keskin (90+1').

The match was played at Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz in Ennepetal.