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Enköping vs Degerfors IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Enköping
Enköping
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
8/21/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundEnavallen C-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Enköping24%
×Draw19%
Degerfors IF58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enköping
1.63
Degerfors IF
2.59

Degerfors IF creates 59% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Enköping
1.60
Degerfors IF
2.59

allows per match

Enköping
2.60
Degerfors IF
1.65

finishing

Enköping+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enköping ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Enköping or draw
42%
Enköping or Degerfors IF
81%
Draw or Degerfors IF
76%

Winning margin

Enköping wins by 2+
11%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Enköping 1+ goals
80%
Enköping 2+ goals
48%
Enköping 3+ goals
22%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
92%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
73%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Enköping (draw refunded)
29%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enköping at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enköping attack 1.60 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + Enköping defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Enköping scores more
24%
level
19%
Degerfors IF scores more
58%

Degerfors IF at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enköping vs Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat Enköping 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 21, 2025.

The match was played at Enavallen C-plan in Enköping.