Enisey 1–3 Volga Ulyanovsk: Result & Stats

Enisey

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Volga Ulyanovsk

2/18/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Enisey41%

×Draw25%

Volga Ulyanovsk35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EniseyExpected goals in this matchVolga Ulyanovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.38

Enisey

1.52

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.38

Enisey creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

1.69

creates per match

1.45

1.31

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Enisey

1.69

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.45

allows per match

Enisey

1.31

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Enisey or draw

65%

Enisey or Volga Ulyanovsk

75%

Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk

59%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+

20%

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals

78%

Enisey 2+ goals

45%

Enisey 3+ goals

20%

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

75%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

40%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)

54%

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.69 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.45 + Enisey defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Enisey scores more

41%

level

25%

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

35%

Enisey at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff