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Enisey vs TOM Tomsk — First League 2018

Enisey
Enisey
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TOM Tomsk
TOM Tomsk
11/17/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Enisey47%
×Draw27%
TOM Tomsk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.41
TOM Tomsk
0.96

Enisey creates 47% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 74 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.50
TOM Tomsk
0.91

allows per match

Enisey
1.00
TOM Tomsk
1.32

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

TOM Tomsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
74%
Enisey or TOM Tomsk
73%
Draw or TOM Tomsk
53%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
23%
TOM Tomsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
76%
Enisey 2+ goals
41%
Enisey 3+ goals
17%
TOM Tomsk 1+ goals
62%
TOM Tomsk 2+ goals
25%
TOM Tomsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
65%
TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 124 matches

TOM Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.50 + TOM Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

TOM Tomsk attack 0.91 + Enisey defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Enisey scores more
47%
level
27%
TOM Tomsk scores more
26%

Enisey at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Enisey 3–0 TOM Tomsk

Enisey beat TOM Tomsk 3-0 in First League on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.