Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Enisey vs Spartak Moscow 2 — First League 2018

Enisey
Enisey
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
11/6/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Enisey48%
×Draw25%
Spartak Moscow 226%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.56
Spartak Moscow 2
1.08

Enisey creates 44% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 73 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.52
Spartak Moscow 2
1.18

allows per match

Enisey
0.99
Spartak Moscow 2
1.60

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
74%
Enisey or Spartak Moscow 2
75%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
52%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
25%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
79%
Enisey 2+ goals
46%
Enisey 3+ goals
21%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
66%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
29%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
65%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.99 · 125 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.52 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Enisey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Enisey scores more
48%
level
25%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
26%

Enisey at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enisey vs Spartak Moscow 2

Enisey beat Spartak Moscow 2 2-1 in First League on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.