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Enisey vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2024

Enisey
Enisey
Preview
15:00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
8/29/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Tsentralnyi Stadion
Big match
48%
Enisey
model favours
48%30%22%

Shinnik Yaroslavl win just 14% against the top half (vs 41% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
37%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Enisey48%
×Draw30%
Shinnik Yaroslavl22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.23
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.74

Enisey creates 66% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 40 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.20
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.78

allows per match

Enisey
0.70
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.25

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
78%
Enisey or Shinnik Yaroslavl
70%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
52%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
22%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
71%
Enisey 2+ goals
35%
Enisey 3+ goals
13%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
52%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
17%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
68%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.70 · 44 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.20 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.78 + Enisey defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Enisey scores more
48%
level
30%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
22%

Enisey at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Enisey
WDWDD
Yaroslavl
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Enisey host Shinnik Yaroslavl

August 29, 2026: Enisey take on Shinnik Yaroslavl in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Enisey host Shinnik Yaroslavl at Tsentralnyi Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.