Enisey 4–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl: Result & Stats

Enisey

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl

M. Saveljev 90+2'

A. Okladnikov 63'

V. Kichin 60'

E. Ivanov 33'

I. Andreev 12'

11/12/2023

First League · Round 18Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Enisey48%

×Draw26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EniseyExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.00

Enisey

1.48

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.00

Enisey creates 48% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 122 away

1.49

creates per match

0.99

1.02

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Enisey

1.49

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

Enisey

1.02

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Enisey or draw

74%

Enisey or Shinnik Yaroslavl

74%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

52%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+

24%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals

77%

Enisey 2+ goals

43%

Enisey 3+ goals

19%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

63%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)

65%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.02 · 122 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.49 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Enisey defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Enisey scores more

48%

level

26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

26%

Enisey at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

I. Andreev

28'

D. Guz← N. Kotin

33'

E. Ivanov

46'

A. Semenov← R. Emeljanov

56'

I. Sokolov← D. Samoylov

60'

V. Kichin

63'

A. Okladnikov

64'

M. Saveljev← A. Okladnikov

65'

E. Nizamutdinov← A. Samsonov

65'

A. Malakhov← D. Sukhomlinov

74'

A. Maslovskiy← V. Kichin

90+2'

M. Saveljev

Statistics

EniseyShinnik

Overview

8Corners3

Discipline

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0