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Enisey vs Rubin — Cup 2019

Enisey
Eniseyadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Rubin
Rubin
4/20/2022CupCup · Quarter-finalsCentral'nyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Enisey63%
×Draw23%
Rubin15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.77
Rubin
0.71

Enisey creates 149% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.67
Rubin
0.60

allows per match

Enisey
0.83
Rubin
1.87

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
85%
Enisey or Rubin
77%
Draw or Rubin
37%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
36%
Rubin wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
83%
Enisey 2+ goals
53%
Enisey 3+ goals
26%
Rubin 1+ goals
51%
Rubin 2+ goals
16%
Rubin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
81%
Rubin (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Rubin away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.67 + Rubin defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rubin attack 0.60 + Enisey defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Enisey scores more
63%
level
23%
Rubin scores more
15%

Enisey at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Enisey 3 – 1 Rubin

Enisey beat Rubin 3-1 in Cup on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion in Krasnoyarsk.