Enisey 3–1 Rodina Moskva: Result & Stats

Enisey

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rodina Moskva

2/8/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Enisey51%

×Draw24%

Rodina Moskva25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EniseyExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.14

Enisey

1.74

Rodina Moskva

1.14

Enisey creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.73

creates per match

1.00

1.27

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Enisey

1.73

Rodina Moskva

1.00

allows per match

Enisey

1.27

Rodina Moskva

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Rodina Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Enisey or draw

75%

Enisey or Rodina Moskva

76%

Draw or Rodina Moskva

49%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+

28%

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals

82%

Enisey 2+ goals

52%

Enisey 3+ goals

25%

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals

68%

Rodina Moskva 2+ goals

32%

Rodina Moskva 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)

67%

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.73 + Rodina Moskva defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.74

Rodina Moskva attack 1.00 + Enisey defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Enisey scores more

51%

level

24%

Rodina Moskva scores more

25%

Enisey at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Enisey

Rodina

13

3

88

55

80

38

5

77

72

9

18

1

3

22

59

6

24

28

49

11

Manager: Sergey Tashuev

Enisey substitutes

79Yunusov44Tikhonov17Zazvonkin8Kanaplin9Ratkovic75Okladnikov

Manager: Juan Diaz

Match Recap: Enisey vs Rodina Moskva

Enisey beat Rodina Moskva 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 8, 2026.

Enisey vs Rodina Moskva — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Enisey vs Rodina Moskva